July 9, 2012:

Singapore: Asian low sulphur diesel premiums have spiked to a seven-month high as refinery maintenance keeps supply tight and demand from Australia increases ahead of a refinery closure, trade sources said on Monday. Royal Dutch Shell Plc is likely to need up to 1.2 million barrels of additional diesel once it closes its 79,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) Clyde refinery near Sydney in Australia on Sept. 30 and converts the facility into a fuel terminal, two traders said. The additional demand, together with tight supply of diesel in Asia due to refinery maintenance and lower run rates, has pushed premiums higher in Singapore, Japan and South Korea over the past week. Shell had planned to partially shut its 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) refinery in Singapore for a month's work from early July.

The Singapore Refining Company, a joint venture between Singapore Petroleum Company and Chevron Corp, had shut its crude unit in late June for an unplanned maintenance. Lower refinery run rates in North Asia have also contributed to lower supply of diesel in the Asian market, traders said. Top Chinese refineries will cut crude oil processing runs in July, following gains in the previous two months, as sluggish demand, poor refining margins and high fuel stocks hurt operations, a Reuters poll showed. Japan's average refinery run rate was at 68.2 percent in the last week of June, down 8.9 percentage points from a year ago. "There's less spot supply in the market right now, so it's really pushing up premiums," said a Singapore-based trader.

By the end of trade on Monday, the premium for the 10 ppm sulphur diesel had risen to more than $4 a barrel above Singapore quotes, for the first time since December last year, Reuters data showed.

LESS INDIAN SUPPLY

A workable arbitrage dynamic to ship diesel cargoes from India to Europe has also curbed the supply of Indian cargoes to the Far East, traders said. "The arbitrage is open to the west, with Reliance barrels going to Europe and none at this stage heading east," said a second Singapore-based middle distillates trader. India has not exported any diesel cargoes to Singapore since mid-June, data from the International Enterprise showed. India last exported nearly 90,000 tonnes, or about 670,500 barrels, of diesel to Singapore in the week ended June 13, down from the 101,029 tonnes exported in May, the data showed.

AUSTRALIAN DIESEL DEMAND

The tight supply also comes at a time when demand from Australia has increased ahead of the closure of Shell's Clyde refinery. Shell will need an additional 900,000 to 1.2 million barrels of diesel a month due to the closure, two trade sources said on Monday. Shell and fellow oil major BP, which also supplies diesel into Australia, have both been actively seeking barrels and bidding up premiums for the Australian-compatible 10 ppm sulphur diesel, traders said. "There have been some enquiries from oil majors for cargoes to match Australian specs," said sources with North Asian refineries who declined to be named, as they were not authorised to speak to the media. BP had bought unspecified volumes of 10 ppm sulphur diesel from a Japanese refiner at a firm premium, one of them said. No other details of the trade were available. In Singapore, both oil majors have purchased a total of 1.5 million barrels during the trading period in June and July, compared with 1.425 million in May and 1.05 million in April, Reuters data showed. Singapore exports of diesel to Australia stood at about 456,630 tonnes in June (3.4 million barrels), an increase of more than half from May, data from IE showed.

By Reuters